The Economic Survey has forecast a “V-shaped” recovery for the Indian economy and real GDP growth of 11 per cent in 2021-22, on the back of the roll-out of a massive vaccination drive. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented the Economic Survey, detailing the state of the economy ahead of the Budget, on February 1.
The Economic Survey, prepared by a team led by Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Venkata Subramanian, gives an overview of the various economic sectors and suggests economic reforms that need to be undertaken by the government to accelerate growth.
Faced with unprecedented uncertainty at the onset of the pandemic, India focused on saving lives and livelihoods by its willingness to take short-term pain for long-term gain, the Survey pointed out. India’s response stemmed from the humane principle that while GDP growth will recover from the temporary shock caused by an intense lockdown, human lives that are lost cannot be brought back. India has been able to effectively manage both the spread of COVID-19 and the fatalities, the Survey emphasized.
Meanwhile, the economy is projected to contract 7.7 per cent in the current financial year ending March 31 in the aftermath of the the pandemic and resultant lockdown, which led to massive job losses and brought the economy down to its knees. The gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by a record 23.9 per cent in April-June and 7.5 per cent in the second quarter, marking an unprecedented technical recession i.e.two successive quarters of negative growth.
The Budget, to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday, is expected to increase spending on healthcare and infrastructure and “be a Budget like never before,” in the words of the Finance Minister.