Economic Survey 2021 Highlights: Once-in-a-century crisis; V-shaped recovery | India Business News


2021-01-29 12:55:11

NEW DELHI: Chief economic adviser (CEA) Krishnamurthy Subramanian on Friday presented the Economic Survey 2020-2021 and dedicated it to all the Covid warriors who upheld the country during once-in-a century crisis. He also likened India’s economic recovery to the resilience shown by the Indian cricket team in the recently concluded series in Australia.
The survey said the V-shaped economic recovery is due to mega vaccination drive, robust recovery in the services sector, and robust growth in consumption and investment.
Earlier in the day, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had tabled the survey both in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha.
Here are the highlights of the survey:
* The fundamentals of the economy remain strong as gradual scaling back of lockdowns along with the astute support of Atmanirbhar Bharat Mission have placed the economy firmly on the path of revival.
* Economy projected to contract by 7.7 per cent in current financial year ending March 31 after economic activity was hit by pandemic.
* Robust economic recovery of 11 per cent for fiscal year 2021-22 on back of roll out of a massive vaccine drive.
* The economy would take two years to reach and go past the pre-pandemic level. These projections are in line with IMF estimate of real GDP growth of 11.5 per cent in 2021-22 for India and 6.8 per cent in 2022-23.
* India’s exports are expected to contract by 5.8 per cent and imports by 11.3 per cent during the second half of the current financial year, though implementation of several measures by the government would help support exports going forward, according to the Economic Survey 2021.

* Economic Survey indicates sustainable debt-to-GDP over the next decade irrespective of growth and interest rate indicators.
* India must continue to focus on growth, so that we expand the pie, enabling redistributive policies that lift people out of poverty: CEA
* The survey highlights potential of public investment, especially in times of a slowdown. It calls for fiscal policy to support growth. Hence, we need to re-think fiscal rules: CEA
* The sovereign credit rating methodology needs correction, current ratings do not reflect fundamentals, they also affect foreign investment flow in a mechanical manner: Subramanian
* Even without lockdown, Covid-19 pandemic would have created a significant economic impact. But what the lockdown did ensure is help a coordinated response, enabling ‘saving lives and livelihoods’: CEA
* India’s V-shaped recovery is due to resurgence in high frequency indicators such as power demand, rail freight, e-way bills, GST collection, and steel consumption.

E-book of Economic Survey 2021
* India to have a current account surplus of 2 per cent of GDP in FY21, a historic high after 17 years.
* India’s policy response to Covid-19 was guided by the realization that GDP growth will come back, but not lost human lives: CEA
* * An increase in government spending on the healthcare sector – from the current 1 per cent to 2.5-3 per cent of GDP – as envisaged in the National Health Policy 2017 could reduce out-of-pocket expenditures, as per the Economic Survey 2020-21.

* Early intense lockdown saved lives, helped faster recovery, Subramanian said.
* Stringency of Covid-19 lockdown correlates with negative economic growth in same period but with positive growth in future time period, observes: CEA
* Government’s counter-cyclical fiscal policy will smoothen out the effects of economic cycles: CEA

Economic Survey 2021 released by CEA and other officials
* Calibrated fiscal and monetary support was provided given the evolving economic situation, cushioning the vulnerable in the lockdown and boosting consumption and investment while unlocking, mindful of fiscal repercussions and entailing debt sustainability: CEA
* During 2020-21, retail and wholesale inflation saw movements in the opposite directions, with the headline CPI-combined increasing, and the WPI inflation remaining benign.
* Nominal GDP growth for FY22 projected at 15.4 per cent
* Survey noted that agriculture sector has remained the silver lining amid the Covid-19 crisis.
* Agriculture is projected to clock 3.4 per cent growth, while industry and services are expected to contract by 9.6 per cent and 8.8 per cent, respectively this year.
* Nirmala Sitharaman is widely expected to focus on some fiscal expansion in the upcoming budget to boost slacking economic growth.
* India’s fiscal deficit is likely to be over 7 per cent in 2020-21 as the government eyes asset sales to partly fund higher spending next year.



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